The Bright Future of the Dallas Stars
After a mediocre 2010s, the Stars have all the new young pieces for an exciting new decade.
The Dallas Stars have been seemingly lost the past few seasons - stuck in the in-between of being good but not good enough. Since their impressive run to the cup final in the bubble, they have slowly returned to being a middle-of-the-pact team with all the typical ailments of aging superstars and anchor contracts weighing down the value of said former superstars. Yet through the averaged-out 15th-best point percentage over the last 5 seasons, Dallas has gained and developed some of the most promising assets they've seen in the Jamie Benn era. They've shown a steady stream of emerging young talent and prospects that in a few years’ time could turn them into a true contender. Pieces such as Jason Robertson, Miro Heiskanen, and Jake Oettinger are shaping a new core while insulating the Star’s depth all throughout the lineup.
The Young Guns
The stigma around the stars the last few seasons has been the lack of ability to score - a problem caused by a lack of offensive weapons in the lineup. While Tyler Seguin and former Art Ross winner, Jamie Benn, have had their difficulties producing at an elite level, they’ve taken a back seat to the team’s new faces on offence. Dallas’ current top line of Jason Roberson, Roope Hintz, and Joe Pavelski ranks 5th best league-wide in xGoals %, controlling 59.5% of the xGF while producing 232 total points in the 21-22 season - averaging out to 77 points per player. The highest scorer on Dallas this year outside of this line would be former 2nd overall pick, Tyler Seguin with 49 points in 81 games - a clear step down from the dominant Robertson-Hintz-Pavelski line.
Robertson in particular has displayed his superstar ceiling these past two seasons while finishing 2nd place in Calder voting in the 2020-21 season. This season he took an even bigger step putting up 79 points in 74 games, scoring 41 goals. He is only the 6th player since the 2009-10 season to score 40 goals in their first or second season in the league. A list consisting of Steven Stamkos, Alex Debrincat, Patrik Laine, Kirill Kaprizov, and Auston Matthews, with Matthews being the only one who scored 40 in his rookie year. This level of production at 22 years old gives Dallas the most exciting player they’ve had since Modano. Along with his fellow linemate, Roope Hintz, one of the most exciting young duos in hockey is forming in Texas.
The Steady Hand
One story of success that has followed Dallas since their run to the Cup has been the emergence of Miro Heiskanen as their number-one defenseman. Heiskanen's impressive bubble playoff run was one of the biggest stories of the postseason. Leading the Stars in points with 26 in 27 games and led the team in time on ice. While they fell short in the final to the eventual back-to-back champions, Heiskanen has continued his growth into one of the best defensemen in the league. Since the 2019-20 season, he has posted the best xGA out of any defenseman currently on the stars. This past season when compared with other defensemen playing top pairing minutes of ~1600 he ranked 5th in the league in xGA. While Heiskanen hasn’t had a full-blown offensive breakout in the regular season like Makar, Hughes, or Fox he still has been above a 40-point pace the past 3 seasons while his analytics consistently get better. With the recent coaching changes in Dallas, a shift to a less defensively focused game might finally give Heiskanen a chance to show the offense he flashed on his run to the cup.
The Keeper of the Fort
Similar to Heiskanen’s breakout in the bubble playoffs, Stars netminder Jake Oettinger just had one of his own.
He singlehandedly pushed the Stars to game 7 against the Flames in the first round of the 2021-22 playoffs putting up a .954 SV% and 1.81 GAA. He leads all goalies from the postseason with these stats. Via Natural Stat Trick Oettinger currently ranks 3rd in GSAA with 7.02, a stat he achieved in just 7 games. In second place Andrei Vasilevskiy had a 7.27 GSAA only getting a 0.25 gain on Oettinger with 10 more games played.
After this run in the playoffs, Oettinger cleared his path to become Dallas’ full-time starter next season - a role that has had many candidates over the past few seasons. At the start of this last season, the Stars didn’t seem like Oettinger was ready and was icing a goalie tandem on playoff hero Anton Khoudobin and a gamble in free agency signing Braden Holtby. Even after a strong rookie season, the previous year outplaying Khoudobins .905 SV% with a .911 SV% in only 3 fewer games played. This signing left Oettinger as the 3rd man in line for the Stars net and even could be considered 4th as former Stars goalie Ben Bishop was looking to come back after a long-term injury. This worry however very quickly vanished as Khoudobin would very quickly fall off in play posting a .879 SV% as well as trouble with injury creating a spot for Oettinger to form a strong 1A/1B tandem with Braden Holtby who was putting up his best numbers since the 2016-17 seasons. The looming worry of Bishop’s return would also fade as he would retire from playing after a poor conditioning stint in the AHL solidifying Oettinger’s spot as an NHL-level goalie.